Map the riskiest assumption

---
name: riskiest-assumption-map
description: "Maps and prioritizes uncertain product assumptions, then designs the cheapest falsification test. Use before committing meaningful build effort or when a plan depends on several unproven beliefs."
---

# Map the riskiest assumption

Apply this skill during **Discovery** work. It supports Any stack.

Find the belief most likely to waste the loop, then test it before polishing anything else.

## Instructions

Map the assumptions behind this product decision. Begin with the customer outcome and business outcome. List assumptions under desirability, viability, feasibility, and usability. For each, score consequence if wrong and current evidence strength; do not use confidence as a substitute for evidence. Select exactly one riskiest assumption: the high-consequence belief with the weakest evidence that can still change the plan. Design the cheapest ethical test that could falsify it, with a deadline, numeric or observable threshold, and an explicit action for pass, fail, or ambiguous evidence. Defer lower-risk work until this test is read.

## Detect the problem

- A long risk list where everything is marked high priority
- Technical uncertainty tested before uncertain customer demand
- An experiment whose result cannot change the plan

## Hold the gate

Do not declare this phase complete until every item passes:

- [ ] The desired customer and business outcome is stated before assumptions are listed
- [ ] Assumptions cover desirability, viability, feasibility, and usability
- [ ] Each assumption is scored separately for consequence and evidence strength
- [ ] Exactly one current riskiest assumption is selected with a written rationale
- [ ] A cheap falsification test has a threshold, deadline, and resulting decision

## Verify the result

Run the proposed test as a paper walkthrough: every possible result must map to pass, fail, or gather-specific-evidence-next, with no result interpreted as automatic success.